Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The current market pricing reflects zero probability assigned to any temperature outcome, a technical artefact of how Polymarket's conditional token architecture initialises contracts before meaningful trading volume establishes price discovery. USDC settlement on Polygon will follow once the actual daily maximum is recorded and verified against the specified data source.

Tokyo's August temperatures have historically clustered between 32–36°C, with extremes reaching 39–40°C during heat waves. The 2010 heat wave pushed Haneda to 39.5°C; more recently, August 2023 saw consistent highs in the 34–37°C range. These precedents matter because they define the reasonable range boundaries traders will evaluate. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological certainty; once trading commences, conditional token prices will distribute probability across temperature bands based on seasonal forecasts and real-time weather models.

The Japan Meteorological Agency issues extended forecasts in late July that typically refine August predictions. El Niño and La Niña patterns influence Pacific-region summer temperatures; the current oceanic state will shape August 2026 conditions. Traders should monitor JMA advisories and international climate outlooks released in the weeks preceding the settlement window. Haneda's urban heat island effect and proximity to Tokyo Bay create microclimatic conditions distinct from broader metropolitan readings, making station-specific historical data the primary reference for calibrating position sizing.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.