Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Tokyo Haneda Airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is treating a qualifying high in the specified range as effectively out of the money. Because settlement is tied to the **highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station** on 1 August via Wunderground, the relevant setup is the *day’s peak* rather than the morning reading, and positions are held in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens.

For context, Tokyo’s August climate is normally hot rather than extreme: long-run August averages cluster around the low 30s Celsius for daytime highs, while recent monthly data show August mean highs in Tokyo around **34.4°C in 2025** and **31°C average highs** in broader climate summaries.[10][11] Historical Tokyo records also show that very high summer temperatures are possible, with a cited all-time monthly peak of **37.3°C** in August 1994, so a zero-per-cent price reflects the market’s view that today would need an exceptional reading to hit the upper bins.[2]

The main things to watch are the **midday and afternoon updates** from the resolution source, plus any local weather developments that could push the airport above typical August levels. Today’s forecast ranges imply highs around **82°F to 90°F** in Tokyo, and recent reporting on Japan’s heat has underlined how quickly conditions can spike, with the country logging record-breaking temperatures elsewhere this week.[1][19] On a trading basis, the key dependency is not the citywide average but the single highest reading posted at Haneda before the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**, as that is what determines which temperature range receives the payout.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.