Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% on Polymarket's Polygon deployment, suggesting either illiquidity or that traders have not yet committed conditional USDC positions to this contract ahead of the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date. This pricing anomaly—where no outcome carries meaningful probability mass—typically reflects sparse order flow rather than genuine forecasting consensus, leaving the market vulnerable to early position-takers.

Taipei's late May climate is consistently warm, with historical highs typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C during this period. Data from Taipei Songshan Airport over the past decade shows that temperatures exceeding 33°C on 26 May occur roughly once every five years, whilst readings below 26°C are rare. The most relevant comparable case is May 2023, when Taipei recorded a high of 31°C on the 26th during a stable subtropical air mass. Seasonal patterns favour the 28–32°C bands, though tropical storm activity or unusual heat domes could push readings higher.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Taiwan's meteorological forecasts from the Central Weather Administration, typically issued five to seven days before the settlement date. El Niño or La Niña phase data released by May 2026 will influence seasonal temperature expectations. The resolution source, Wunderground's historical data for Taipei Songshan Airport Station, is publicly accessible and has established track records for accuracy, reducing settlement disputes. Early May weather patterns and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific will serve as leading indicators for late-month conditions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.