Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, Taipei will experience early summer heat, and this market settles on the single highest temperature recorded at Songshan Airport that day. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state on Polygon, where USDC-denominated conditional tokens price this contract at the lower end of plausible outcomes. Traders holding YES positions are betting against the consensus view that temperatures will remain modest for mid-June in Taiwan's capital.

Taipei's June climate shows consistent patterns: average highs cluster between 29–32°C, with extreme readings occasionally reaching 34–36°C during heat waves. Historical data from Songshan Airport, the official settlement source, demonstrates that temperatures above 35°C occur roughly once every three to five years in mid-June, whilst readings below 28°C are rare but possible during monsoon-influenced weather systems. The current 0% pricing suggests traders expect either a cooler-than-average day or are simply not engaging with this particular contract.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include the onset of the Pacific typhoon season, which can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, and the intensity of the Tibetan high-pressure system, which typically strengthens through June and drives heat northward across East Asia. Weather forecasting models from the Central Weather Administration and international services will become increasingly reliable from early June onwards. Any significant tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during the preceding week could materially shift expectations for the 16th.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.