Highest temperature in Taipei on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns a 0% chance to any specific outcome being "YES", despite the frontrunner being 36°C at 36% probability[1]. This market resolves on the temperature range containing the peak Celsius reading for that day, sourced from Wunderground’s historical data for Taipei Songshan Airport Station[4]. Traders on Polymarket are using USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens, betting on whether the day’s maximum heat will fall into ranges like 35°C or 36°C, with the latter leading at 36% and 35°C trailing at 33%[1].

Historically, July is Taipei’s hottest month, with Songshan Airport averaging a high of 92°F (33.3°C), and recent data shows average highs on mid-July dates reaching 92.8°F (33.8°C)[3][7]. The lowest recorded high in July was 79.3°F (26.3°C) in 1952, but typical peaks cluster near 33–34°C, making 35°C or 36°C plausible under strong summer convection[7]. Given this baseline, the 0% crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome appears inconsistent with the market’s own pricing, which clearly favours 36°C as the most likely result[1].

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s daily forecasts and real-time sensor updates from Songshan Airport, especially cloud cover and humidity trends that influence peak temperatures[5]. A sudden drop in cloud cover or a rise in humidity could push temperatures above 35°C, triggering a shift in conditional token prices. Recent weather reports note current conditions at Songshan include 91% cloud cover and 66% humidity, which may suppress peak heat unless a change occurs[6]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but on-chain liquidity and token volume on Polymarket will signal whether traders are adjusting positions ahead of the 12:00 UTC settlement window[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.