Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is set to record its peak temperature for 13 July 2026, a value that will settle the Polymarket contract on the highest heat reached at this station. The market currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, despite July being Taipei’s hottest month with average highs near 33°C [2].

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as a reaction to the specific range selected rather than a lack of heat. The warmest recorded low temperature on 13 July at this station was 32.0°C in 2014, while typical July highs average 92°F (33.3°C) [1][2]. Traders should note that if the market range sits significantly above 35°C, the 0% price reflects a rational assessment that such extreme outliers are statistically improbable for this date, even during the peak of the summer season.

A trader monitoring this on-chain USDC position on Polygon must watch the live Wunderground feed for the RCSS station, as settlement depends entirely on the daily maximum recorded there [1]. With thunderstorms and local showers forecast for the night and morning of 13 July, precipitation could suppress peak temperatures below the range threshold [5]. The resolution source is fixed to Wunderground’s history page, meaning no official announcements from the Central Weather Administration will alter the outcome once the clock hits 12:00:00Z on 13 July 2026 [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.