Highest temperature in Taipei on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 10 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" resolution sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, the contract prices the 31°C range at 30% and the 32°C range at 28%, reflecting a market that anticipates typical midsummer heat rather than extreme anomalies. Historical data confirms July is Taipei’s hottest month, with an average high of 92°F (33°C) at Songshan Airport, while the current 10-day forecast shows rain and temperatures peaking near 87°F (31°C) today, suggesting the market may be overreacting to transient weather patterns [2][5].

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s hourly updates and Wunderground’s daily archives, as these are the official resolution sources for this on-chain conditional token market settled in USDC on Polygon. A key catalyst is the forecasted 99% chance of rain and heavy showers for 10 July, which could suppress temperatures below the 31°C threshold if sustained throughout the day [5]. Recent weather models indicate persistent cloud cover and NE winds at 15 mph, conditions that historically limit daytime highs in Taipei; any sudden shift to clear skies or stronger southerly flow would be the primary signal for a price adjustment in the 32°C range [5][7]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July, so real-time data from the airport station will be critical for final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.