Highest temperature in Taipei on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Taipei Songshan Airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying no active trader has put weight on any particular outcome yet, even though the contract settles against the single highest reading recorded at the station before the window closes. For a user holding USDC on Polygon, the practical issue is not the abstract climate but whether Songshan Airport prints a late-morning or early-afternoon spike high enough to land in one of the listed Celsius ranges before settlement. The resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history page for Taipei Songshan Airport Station, so the only number that matters is the day’s top observed temperature there.

August in Taipei is normally hot, humid, and rain-prone, with published climate guides putting typical daytime highs around 32–34°C and describing August as the hottest part of the year. Historical summaries also show Taipei’s August highs commonly sit in the low-30s Celsius, with record highs in the upper-30s, which keeps the upper bins relevant even if the modal outcome is lower. In market terms, that means the contract is less about a single forecast and more about whether conditions reach the top end of the usual summer range at least once during the day.

A trader should watch the morning heating trend, cloud cover, and any rain bands that suppress daytime maxima; coastal airport stations can undercut central-city readings when sea breezes and showers arrive early. Songshan is near the city core, but the settlement source is still the airport station itself, so local microclimate matters more than Taipei-wide averages. No announcement risk is obvious beyond the weather itself, but the resolution only depends on the final Wunderground daily high, not on any forecast model or government bulletin.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.