Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport will fall into one of several discrete ranges, with the market currently pricing all outcomes at 0% probability on Polymarket. This reflects the standard state of markets settled far in the future, where conditional tokens on Polygon have yet to accumulate meaningful trading volume or price discovery. The resolution will depend on Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date, measured in degrees Celsius at the airport's official station.

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima, with May typically seeing highs between 31–34°C. Historical records from Changi Airport show that temperatures above 35°C occur in fewer than 5% of May days, whilst readings below 30°C are exceptionally rare. The market's zero-probability framing reflects genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise, rather than any expectation that the event won't occur. Comparable May days at Changi have clustered tightly around the 32–33°C range over the past two decades, providing a baseline against which traders can calibrate their position.

The key dependency for this market is the onset of the southwest monsoon season, which typically brings increased cloud cover and occasional rainfall to Singapore in late May, potentially moderating afternoon peaks. The Meteorological Department Singapore publishes seasonal forecasts and weekly outlooks that traders should monitor as May 2026 approaches. No scheduled events—industrial shutdowns, major weather systems, or atmospheric anomalies—are currently known to affect temperature patterns on that specific date, making this a relatively straightforward seasonal weather contract once liquidity emerges on-chain.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.