Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Wunderground, with the contract resolving once the daily maximum is finalised. Currently, Polymarket prices this contract with 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or a technical listing issue rather than genuine market consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima. May historically sits within the pre-monsoon season, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–34°C at Changi Airport. Over the past decade, May temperatures have rarely exceeded 35°C or fallen below 31°C, making extreme outliers statistically uncommon. The 2015 El Niño event pushed some May days to 35.5°C, whilst cooler years have seen maxima cluster around 32°C. This historical band—roughly 31–35°C—should anchor expectations for any rational pricing model.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Indian Ocean Dipole and equatorial Pacific conditions as May approaches, since these oscillations influence regional rainfall and cloud cover patterns that moderate daily temperatures. The Inter-monsoon period (May–September) occasionally brings afternoon thunderstorms that suppress afternoon peaks, though this effect is inconsistent. Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's historical records for Changi Airport; any discrepancy between that source and other meteorological stations becomes irrelevant once the contract locks. The zero-probability listing warrants scrutiny—this may reflect a genuine market gap rather than informed pricing.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.