Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Singapore Changi Airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is treating the chance of the specified temperature range being the day’s high as negligible for now. The trade settles in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the relevant question is not Singapore’s general weather, but the exact maximum temperature recorded at the resolution source for the airport station by the end of the settlement window.

For context, Singapore in July is typically hot, humid and rainy rather than extreme by regional standards. Current weather reads around **29°C** in Singapore, while July averages cited by weather services cluster near the **high-20s Celsius** for daily highs, with frequent rainfall and cloud cover that can cap heat build-ups.[1][3][4][5] That makes very high maxima less common than in inland tropical locations, but it does not rule out brief spikes if sunshine breaks through early in the day.

A trader watching this market should focus on the Changi station feed on Wunderground, because the contract resolves to the **highest temperature recorded on 27 July** there, not to a city-wide forecast or the daily average.[1] The main catalysts are short-term forecast shifts, convective rain timing, and any morning clearing before showers develop; once clouds and rainfall set in, the ceiling for the day’s maximum usually drops. Current Singapore conditions include high humidity and light winds, with a RealFeel well above the air temperature, which is typical of a tropical marine climate but does not itself determine the settlement value.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.