Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature ever recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July is a real-world metric that determines this market’s outcome, yet the crowd-implied probability of a “YES” resolution sits at 0% today. On Polymarket, this contract trades with near-zero USDC volume on the Polygon network, reflecting conditional tokens that currently price the event as virtually impossible. The market resolves based on Wunderground’s daily high for all times on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius at the Changi station.

Historical climate data frames this 0% probability as reasonable: July in Singapore typically sees average highs of 31°C, with daytime temperatures rarely exceeding 34°C at Changi Airport [1][2]. While Ang Mo Kio recently matched a 40-year record of 37°C, this outlier occurred inland and not at the coastal Changi station, which consistently records lower peaks due to sea influence [7][8]. No historical 1 July reading at Changi has breached 35°C, making a higher threshold statistically implausible.

Traders should monitor the Meteorological Service Singapore’s upcoming July climate bulletin and any announcements on urban heat mitigation schedules, as these could shift microclimate conditions [5]. A recent Straits Times report noted that record-breaking heat often follows prolonged dry spells and reduced cloud cover, dependencies that will be critical if the 1 July forecast shifts [7]. Watch for real-time Wunderground updates as the settlement window closes on 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, since conditional tokens will adjust instantly to new data.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.