Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 9?

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Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will determine which range this market settles to. The crowd has priced all temperature brackets at 0% probability, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which specific range will resolve. Polymarket's conditional token architecture means traders are effectively purchasing USDC-denominated claims on discrete temperature bands, with settlement contingent on Wunderground's historical weather data for that single day.

Shenzhen's June climate is characterised by early monsoon influence and high humidity. Historical data from the past decade shows June highs typically range between 28–34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 June records for the airport station provide the most relevant comparable cases; reviewing those specific daily maxima offers calibration for what constitutes an outlier versus a typical early-summer reading. The city's coastal location and urban heat island effect create measurable variance across the month.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May and early June, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer could shift baseline expectations. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 9 June, meaning traders have no post-event window to trade on actual observed conditions—all positioning must reflect pre-event conviction about temperature ranges.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.