Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, Shenzhen will record its highest temperature of the day at Bao'an International Airport Station, measured in Celsius. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability, indicating either sparse liquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine market consensus. The contract resolves based on historical weather data from Wunderground, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date—meaning traders must account for the lag between local time in Shenzhen (UTC+8) and when final readings become available.

Shenzhen's June climate sits firmly within its hot, humid pre-monsoon season. Historical records from Bao'an station show June highs typically range between 30–34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges suggests the market may lack sufficient trading activity to establish meaningful odds, rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether temperatures will fall within normal seasonal bounds. Comparable June days at the station have consistently produced measurable highs well above 25°C.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, which provide 10-day outlooks for Guangdong Province. Any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during late May or early June could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems typically drive readings toward the upper end of the seasonal range. Real-time updates from Wunderground's historical archive become the sole arbiter once 7 June passes, making early-season weather pattern analysis the primary edge for positioning.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.