Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 7 July 2026 at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms that July is Shenzhen’s hottest month, with average daily highs reaching 32°C and a monthly mean of 29°C [2][3]. The city frequently experiences temperatures above 30°C during this period, and recent records show China endured its hottest July on record, with southern provinces hitting new highs [7][9]. Given this consistent pattern, a current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome below 30°C appears misaligned with decades of climatic evidence, suggesting the market may be underpricing the likelihood of extreme heat.

Traders should monitor the upcoming typhoon forecasts and subtropical high-pressure system updates, as these directly influence temperature spikes in Shenzhen [2]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s official daily record for the Bao'an Airport station, which aggregates all readings throughout 7 July [1]. A recent report from CCTV noted that last year’s peak hit 89°F (31.7°C) on 11 July, reinforcing that early July temperatures often match or exceed this threshold [4]. With Polymarket pricing conditional tokens on USDC via Polygon, the 26% probability assigned to 29°C and 26% to 30°C reflects real-time crowd sentiment, yet the 0% floor for lower ranges contradicts the historical baseline [1][5]. Watch for any sudden weather advisories from the China Meteorological Administration before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.