Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen will face its peak summer heat on 10 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport determining the outcome of this weather contract. Historical data confirms July is the city’s hottest month, where average daily highs reach 32°C (90°F) and frequent subtropical highs push readings higher, often accompanied by heavy rainfall and typhoon activity [1][2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are betting the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, likely because the market expects a value near or above the historical 32°C average, making the current odds a stark contrast to typical seasonal patterns [1][3].

Traders must monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and real-time Wunderground updates for the Bao'an station, as sudden typhoon arrivals or intense convective showers can rapidly suppress peak temperatures below the 30°C threshold [1][8]. The settlement relies exclusively on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day, meaning a brief heat spike at midday could resolve the market differently than a cloudy, rain-soaked afternoon [9]. With USDC liquidity on the Polygon network and conditional tokens governing the position, on-chain mechanics will execute automatically once the official Wunderground data is published, requiring no manual intervention from the user [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.