Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station is very unlikely to post a daily high that lands in the covered temperature range on 2 August. That is a claim about the contract outcome, not the weather itself: settlement is based on the highest temperature recorded at the airport station in Wunderground’s daily history page, with resolution in USDC through Polygon conditional tokens.

For context, Shenzhen is a hot, humid city in August, and long-run climate normals cluster around the low 30s Celsius. Sources that aggregate August weather data put typical highs near **32°C to 32.8°C** and lows around **26°C to 27°C**, with daily highs often around **89°F to 91°F** and occasional spikes above that[2][4][6][10]. Historical comparison also matters because one-day airport readings can differ from citywide averages, and late-summer typhoon season can produce cloud, rain and suppressed daytime maxima even when the broader monthly average is high[16]. A 0% market therefore implies traders see the specific settlement band as either extremely broad or, more likely, disconnected from the expected daily peak.

The main catalyst is the live weather pattern over the next several hours: cloud cover, heavy rain bands, and any tropical system affecting the Pearl River Delta will matter more than the monthly average. Traders should watch the airport station’s updates on Wunderground through the UTC settlement window, alongside official forecasts and any typhoon-related advisories from Hong Kong and mainland forecasters, because those can shift the day’s maximum temperature quickly. Weather history pages for Shenzhen show that early August can still reach the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, but they also show large day-to-day variability, which is the key risk for anyone pricing a specific temperature bucket[1][4][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.