Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, Shanghai's highest temperature will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% YES on Polygon, reflecting either illiquidity or extreme uncertainty about which specific range will settle. Traders are exchanging conditional tokens denominated in USDC, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground's archive for that single day.

Shanghai's late May climate is well-documented: the city typically experiences highs between 28–32°C during this period, with occasional spikes above 33°C during early heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that temperatures exceeding 35°C on 30 May are rare but not unprecedented. The 0% pricing across all brackets suggests the market lacks sufficient liquidity or trader participation to establish meaningful odds, rather than indicating genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket have shown that seasonal norms and historical frequency distributions often anchor initial probability distributions once trading begins.

The key variable affecting Shanghai's temperature on that date will be the East Asian monsoon system's position and intensity in late May 2026. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts released in the weeks preceding settlement, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and regional weather services. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early arrival of tropical systems or persistent high-pressure ridges—could shift outcomes materially. Current pricing reflects the market's nascent stage; meaningful probability discovery typically occurs as the settlement date approaches and forecasts become more granular.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.