Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport and settled against Wunderground's historical records. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting the distance to the event date and the inherent difficulty in pricing weather outcomes nearly eighteen months forward. On Polymarket, this contract trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, denominated in USDC, with settlement contingent on finalised data from a single, specified weather station rather than city-wide averages.

Historical May temperatures in Shanghai provide the baseline for calibrating expectations. The city's average high in May sits around 28°C, with extremes ranging from 35°C on unusually hot days to occasional cooler readings near 20°C. The 0% pricing across all bands suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as too uncertain to price meaningfully at this horizon. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket typically see meaningful probability mass only within 4–6 weeks of settlement, when forecast models stabilise and atmospheric patterns become more predictable.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for El Niño or La Niña developments through late 2025 and early 2026, as these patterns influence East Asian summer onset timing and intensity. China's meteorological agency publishes seasonal outlooks quarterly; the next update relevant to May 2026 conditions will arrive in early 2026. Urban heat island effects at Pudong, driven by ongoing construction and infrastructure expansion, could shift historical temperature distributions upward, though this influence remains gradual and difficult to quantify in advance.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.