Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, Shanghai's highest temperature will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured at Pudong International Airport Station. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% YES across Polygon, meaning traders see no consensus on which range will resolve. This reflects genuine uncertainty about early summer conditions in Shanghai, where June temperatures typically cluster between 28°C and 32°C, though extremes occasionally push higher.

Shanghai's June weather patterns show considerable year-to-year variation tied to the East Asian monsoon transition and subtropical high-pressure systems. Historical data from Wunderground reveals that June highs at Pudong have ranged from 25°C in cooler years to 35°C during heat waves, with most occurrences settling in the 29–33°C band. The 0% pricing suggests the market may be awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as an early-season contract where confidence remains low. Comparable temperature markets on Polymarket typically see probability mass concentrate around historical medians once meteorological models improve.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China's meteorological agency forecasts released in May, which typically provide 10-day outlooks by early June. The East Asian summer monsoon onset timing—usually occurring in early to mid-June—will be a critical catalyst, as delayed monsoon arrival correlates with higher temperatures across the Yangtze River Delta region. Real-time settlement depends on Wunderground's historical data feed for ZSPD station, making data availability and recording accuracy the final resolution variables.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.