Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

On 27 June 2026, Shanghai Pudong International Airport will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of a Polymarket contract priced at 0% YES today. This on-chain bet, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, hinges entirely on whether the highest temperature falls into a specific Celsius range, with the market currently dismissing that possibility as virtually impossible.

Historical patterns for late June at this station show daily highs consistently climbing between 27°C and 30°C, rarely dipping below 24°C or exceeding 33°C, making a 0% probability for a standard range highly counter-intuitive unless the market defines an extreme outlier threshold. AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast for Pudong indicates highs ranging from 80°F to 86°F (27°C to 30°C), while WeatherSpark notes that average highs increase by 7°F through the month, rarely falling below 69°F, suggesting the current pricing may reflect a misalignment between the contract’s specific range and typical climatic behaviour[2][3][5].

Traders should monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s daily weather bulletins and any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon, which could trigger unseasonal cooling or intense heatwaves before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The primary dependency is the Wunderground data feed from the Pudong station, which will resolve the market, so any technical delays or sensor anomalies in the official National Weather Service timeseries for ZSPD could introduce volatility[1][6]. Recent climate reports confirm Shanghai enters its hot, humid rainy season in June with 159mm of rainfall, meaning a sudden shift in precipitation patterns is the most likely catalyst to alter the day’s peak temperature[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.