Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Shanghai Pudong airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which implies the market assigns virtually no chance that the day’s recorded high will land in a range other than the one currently being favoured by the crowd. The contract resolves off the highest temperature logged at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on 22 June 2026, and the settlement logic is mechanical: USDC sits in the market, Polygon handles the on-chain trading, and the conditional token outcome is determined by the Wunderground reading for that station.

June in Shanghai is already a warm, late-spring-to-summer shoulder period rather than an outlier heat month, with average daily highs at Pudong rising through the month and typically sitting in the upper 20s to low 30s °C, while the hot season is usually established by mid-June. Historically, that means traders usually watch for whether the day behaves like a normal warm June session or breaks higher into a heat-spike range; weather records show Pudong highs can push well above 30°C, but the base rate is still for temperatures to cluster nearer the seasonal average than the extreme tail. [1][4][5]

For today’s catalyst set, the live forecast matters more than the calendar. AccuWeather currently flags an afternoon thunderstorm or two at Shanghai Pudong, with a high near 79°F, which would lean towards a more muted daytime maximum if it verifies, while NOAA’s station timeseries provides intraday guidance on whether the airport is tracking above or below the early-summer norm. In market terms, the main thing to watch is whether convective cloud, rain or a late surge in sun exposure changes the airport’s peak before the settlement window closes, because even a few degrees can shift the contract into a different temperature bin. [2][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.