Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 2?

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 2 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport and settled against Wunderground historical data. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either thin liquidity or a technical issue with the contract's conditional token structure on Polygon. Traders would need to deposit USDC and select a specific temperature bracket—the market's bin structure determines which range resolves YES depending on the actual recorded high.

Early June in Shanghai typically sees temperatures between 28–32°C as the city transitions into summer monsoon season. Historical data from Wunderground shows 2 June highs have ranged from 26°C to 34°C over recent decades, with most years clustering around 30–31°C. The 0% probability across all bins suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or that traders are awaiting clarity on the exact temperature brackets available for settlement before committing capital.

Key variables affecting the outcome include tropical weather systems moving northward from the South China Sea and the East Asian summer monsoon's onset timing. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues 10-day forecasts by late May, which would provide traders with probabilistic guidance on whether June 2026 will track warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. Any significant tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late May could shift Shanghai's weather pattern materially, though such systems remain difficult to predict beyond a week in advance.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.