Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, Shanghai's highest temperature will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and fall into one of several discrete ranges measured in Celsius. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's closure before any actual temperature data exists—a common state for weather contracts weeks in advance on Polymarket. Traders holding conditional tokens representing specific temperature bands are effectively betting against the crowd's current indifference, which typically shifts as the event date approaches and meteorological forecasts solidify.

Shanghai's June temperatures historically cluster between 28°C and 32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early summer heat waves. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent warm conditions by this date, though variability remains significant year-to-year depending on monsoon patterns and atmospheric pressure systems. Recent Junes have seen highs ranging from 27°C to 35°C, providing traders with a reasonable historical envelope for evaluating which temperature bands represent value relative to seasonal norms.

The primary catalyst for price movement will be the China Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts, typically issued with useful detail 10–14 days before 1 June. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by NOAA and reported through May, influence regional weather patterns and could shift expectations toward warmer or cooler outcomes. Traders should monitor Shanghai's May temperatures as a leading indicator; sustained heat in late May often signals continued warmth into early June, whilst cooler spells may suggest temporary relief from peak summer conditions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.