Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai on 9 July 2026 is expected to be hot and humid, with daytime highs typically exceeding 35°C and often peaking near 38°C, as recorded in July 2025[2]. Historical data for Shanghai Pudong International Airport shows July daily highs ranging from 84°F to 88°F (29°C–31°C), rarely falling below 75°F (24°C)[1]. Recent forecasts for 9 July indicate broken clouds and a temperature of 33°C (91.4°F), slightly below the monthly peak but still well within the sweltering range common for mid-summer[3].

The current 0% YES probability on Polymarket implies the crowd believes the temperature will not reach the highest threshold in the contract’s range, likely due to the 33°C forecast for that specific day[3]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, which can suppress peak temperatures[2]. While no major weather announcements are pending, the dependency on on-chain conditional tokens means liquidity and USDC settlement on Polygon will directly affect price efficiency as the settlement window closes on 2026-07-09T12:00:00Z[2].

Given the on-chain mechanics, any deviation from the 33°C forecast—such as a heatwave pushing temperatures toward 38°C—could rapidly alter the market’s implied probability. The contract resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at any time on 9 July, not just the daily average, making afternoon peaks critical[2]. With air-conditioned indoor attractions recommended during peak heat, outdoor exposure remains limited, but the underlying meteorological risk of extreme heat persists[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.