Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying it sees no chance that Shanghai Pudong International Airport posts a highest temperature within the relevant YES range before the settlement window closes. Because the market settles on the **highest temperature recorded at the airport station** on the day, the practical driver is not the city average but the single daytime peak printed by Wunderground from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, with outcomes traded in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens.

For context, Shanghai in July is usually hot, humid, and often disrupted by rain, with typical highs around **32°C to 33°C** and frequent showers rather than prolonged cool spells.[2][5] Near-term forecasts also point to daytime highs around **95°F to 96°F** and recurring precipitation chances, which matters because cloud cover and rain can cap the day’s maximum even when the broader season is warm.[1][3] Against that backdrop, a 0% print implies traders are seeing the quoted range as already excluded by the current weather setup, not simply treating the contract as a pure temperature coin-flip.

The main catalysts are the live Shanghai forecast, especially any update to the daily high, cloud cover, and rain timing, plus any shift in monsoon conditions as the day progresses.[1][3] Traders should also watch for airport-station observations on Wunderground, since the market resolves off that specific record rather than a citywide average or nearby station. Because the settlement source is fixed and the window ends at **12:00 UTC**, the only relevant mechanics are whether the realised airport maximum lands inside the contract’s range before that cut-off, with no dependency on external policy announcements or event schedules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.