Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 21 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical records via Wunderground. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES across the board on Polymarket, suggesting either a technical listing issue or extreme uncertainty about which specific bracket will settle. Traders are effectively choosing between discrete Celsius bands, with payouts determined by conditional token mechanics on Polygon; whichever range captures the actual high temperature that day will resolve to 1 USDC per share held.

July in Shanghai is consistently brutal. The city's thirty-year average high for mid-to-late July sits around 32–33°C, though readings regularly breach 35°C during heat waves. In 2013, Shanghai recorded 40.8°C on 6 August; more recently, 2022 saw sustained temperatures above 35°C throughout July and August. The airport station, located in Pudong's eastern industrial zone, typically records slightly higher readings than central Shanghai due to urban heat island effects and proximity to concrete surfaces. Historical volatility suggests the outcome will likely fall between 33°C and 37°C, with outlier years occasionally pushing toward 38–40°C.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or typhoon activity that could suppress temperatures. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months will influence regional atmospheric patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July, giving traders until that point to adjust positions based on intraday weather data; Wunderground's historical records typically update within hours of observation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.