Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 July 2026, Shanghai will record its peak daily temperature at the Pudong International Airport Station, a metric that will settle this weather contract on Polymarket. Today, the market prices the “YES” outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specified range, while the leading conditional token for “35°C” sits at 100% probability [1]. Traders using USDC on the Polygon network are effectively betting on whether the heatwave will breach this threshold, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on the same day.

Historical July data for Shanghai shows average highs between 27°C and 36°C, with the month often ranking as one of the hottest in the region [2]. Given that 35°C is the current crowd favourite, the 0% YES price suggests the specified range likely caps below this level, perhaps at 34°C or lower. Comparable years show frequent spikes to 35°C–36°C during mid-July, making a sub-35°C peak less typical unless cloud cover or rain intervenes, which occurs on roughly 12–14 days in the month [2].

Key catalysts include real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, which publishes the highest temperature for the Pudong station daily [1]. Traders should monitor Shanghai’s hourly weather forecasts and any official heat advisories issued by local meteorological authorities, as these often precede temperature spikes. With the settlement deadline imminent, liquidity may shift rapidly as the final hourly readings approach, reflecting the on-chain mechanics of conditional tokens adjusting to incoming data.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.