Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s peak heat on 16 July 2026 will be measured at the Pudong International Airport station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that day’s highest temperature. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the outcome will fall outside the selected range, though the specific range in question is not stated in the prompt. On-chain, trades settle in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, where liquidity moves as new data shifts implied probabilities.

Historically, mid-July in Shanghai routinely sees highs between 32°C and 37°C, with 2024 reaching 36.8°C and 2023 peaking at 37.2°C at Pudong, according to Wunderground’s daily archives[1]. A 0% YES probability suggests the market expects the temperature to land outside the offered bracket, possibly due to an unusually narrow range or a forecast leaning toward cooler conditions. Traders should compare this to prior years’ distributions to assess whether the current pricing reflects a genuine outlier expectation or a mispriced range.

Key catalysts include the 72-hour forecast from the China Meteorological Administration, which updates daily and often shifts short-term heat expectations, and any sudden monsoon activity that could suppress temperatures[2]. Watch for real-time updates on Wunderground’s Pudong station page as the day progresses, since settlement relies on the highest recorded temperature across all times on 16 July. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026, late-morning data will be decisive for final resolution.

[1] Wunderground, “Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station Daily History” [2] China Meteorological Administration, “72-Hour Forecast for Shanghai Region” (latest update)

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.