Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, Shanghai will record a daily high temperature at Pudong International Airport Station. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0%, reflecting settlement window mechanics on Polygon where USDC collateral backs conditional tokens that resolve against Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date. This pricing anomaly—where no outcome carries meaningful probability mass—typically signals either early-stage liquidity or a technical constraint in how the market was initialised.

Shanghai's July climate is remarkably consistent. Over the past two decades, daily highs in mid-July have ranged between 32°C and 37°C, with the modal outcome clustering around 34–36°C. The city experiences the East Asian summer monsoon during this period, which moderates extreme heat through cloud cover and occasional precipitation, though humidity remains elevated. Historical data from the same station shows that temperatures exceeding 38°C occur in fewer than 5% of July 14th observations, whilst readings below 32°C are similarly rare for this date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any anomalous atmospheric patterns emerging in June 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, could shift typical temperature distributions. Additionally, urban heat island effects at Pudong—where airport infrastructure and surrounding development concentrate thermal mass—mean that station-specific readings may exceed broader Shanghai averages. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 July, giving traders until midnight local time to adjust positions based on observed conditions and intraday forecasts.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.