Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature, a real-world event that currently trades at 0% probability for the highest range on Polymarket. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects a market consensus that extreme heat is unlikely, despite July being Shanghai’s hottest month with average highs of 87°F (30.6°C) and frequent peaks exceeding 35°C (95°F) during sunny spells[2][4].

Historical data from the same station shows July 2026 daily highs ranging from 86°F to 97°F (30°C to 36°C), with overnight lows between 77°F and 81°F (25°C to 27°C), suggesting the current 0% probability may be overly conservative given the region’s typical summer volatility[1]. Comparable years reveal that temperatures regularly breach 30°C, reaching 35°C in the most intense conditions, framing the current odds as potentially misaligned with climatic norms[4].

Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily archive for the station, as resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded at any time on 10 July, and watch for upcoming weather announcements from the National Weather Service or local meteorological updates that could signal sudden heat spikes[7]. Recent forecasts indicate a maximum of 32°C (90°F) at 14:00 on 10 July, with broken clouds and moderate winds, but any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could elevate temperatures beyond current expectations[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.