Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 1 July 2026 is the real-world event determining this market’s outcome, with current ensemble forecasts suggesting daytime maxima clustered near 27–28°C[1]. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for a YES outcome on the highest temperature, the frontrunner on Polymarket is actually 26°C at 77%, indicating the market expects a warm but not extreme day[1].

Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs at Pudong reaching 87°F (30.6°C), and daily highs in early July typically climbing from 84°F to 88°F (28.9–31.1°C)[3][8]. This consistent thermal pattern frames the current pricing: while 26°C is favoured, temperatures exceeding 28°C remain plausible given the seasonal trend, making the 0% YES probability for higher ranges potentially misaligned with historical volatility[3].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for ZSPD, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity can alter peak temperatures within hours[2]. Additionally, Wunderground’s daily archive—the official resolution source—will publish the final reading after 12:00 UTC on 1 July, so any pre-announcement of extreme heat warnings from local meteorological agencies could signal a catalyst for price movement[2]. Recent climate studies on Pudong Airport fog patterns also suggest that reduced fog may correlate with higher daytime maxima, a dependency worth tracking as July approaches[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.