Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and sorted into one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% YES, reflecting either sparse liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will settle. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC on 31 May itself—a tight window that leaves little room for post-event trading adjustments.

Seoul's late May climate sits at a transitional point between spring and early summer. Historical records show daily highs typically ranging between 24–28°C during this period, though outlier years have pushed toward 30°C or beyond. The 2018 heatwave saw Seoul reach 29°C on 31 May; conversely, cooler years have settled around 22–23°C. These historical bands provide the baseline against which traders should calibrate their position. Incheon Airport, located on a coastal island, often records slightly cooler temperatures than central Seoul due to maritime influence, a factor that typically suppresses extreme highs by 1–2°C.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in April and May 2026, particularly any signals of early heat or persistent cool systems. The East Asian monsoon onset timing and any tropical systems developing in the Western Pacific will shape atmospheric conditions weeks in advance. Real-time weather models become reliable only 10–14 days before the event, meaning early traders operate on climatological priors whilst late-stage participants can anchor to deterministic forecasts. The 0% pricing suggests the market awaits meaningful volume or clearer forecast signals before establishing meaningful price discovery.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.