Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and fall within one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% probability, reflecting either insufficient liquidity or a technical settlement lag rather than genuine certainty about the outcome. The contract settles against Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on 25 May 2026.

Seoul's late May climate sits at a transitional point between spring and early summer. Historical data from Incheon Airport shows average highs around 24–26°C during this period, though the city regularly experiences outlier days. In May 2023, Seoul recorded a high of 31.2°C mid-month; in May 2019, temperatures peaked at 29.1°C. The range of plausible outcomes is therefore substantial—anywhere from 18°C on a cool, rainy day to 32°C or higher during an early heat wave. Current crowd pricing at 0% across all brackets suggests traders have not yet engaged with this contract meaningfully, making it difficult to discern where informed expectations actually lie.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather patterns emerging in April and early May 2026, particularly any forecasts indicating anomalous warmth or cold fronts approaching the Korean peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes monthly outlooks and extended forecasts that typically become more reliable two to three weeks before the settlement date. Any significant atmospheric pressure systems or heat domes developing over East Asia in the weeks preceding 25 May would shift the probability distribution substantially toward higher temperature brackets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.