Highest temperature in Seoul on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 9 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, where the highest temperature recorded across the entire day determines the settlement outcome. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either a technical listing issue or minimal liquidity in the conditional token pairs on Polygon. Traders seeking exposure would need to deposit USDC and navigate the AMM pricing to establish positions across the available brackets.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable variability. Over the past decade, daily highs in early June have ranged from 22°C to 31°C, with the mean around 26–27°C. The 2018 heatwave pushed June temperatures to 32°C, whilst cooler years saw highs near 20°C. This spread reflects the transition period between spring and the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon, when Pacific high-pressure systems compete with moisture-laden southwesterly flows. The current 0% pricing suggests the market has not yet calibrated to typical seasonal patterns.

The primary catalyst affecting June 2026 temperatures will be the timing and intensity of the Baiu front—the stationary weather system that typically brings rain and cooler conditions to Korea from late May onwards. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and the strength of the Tibetan high-pressure system will determine whether early June leans warm or cool. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically releases seasonal outlooks in May 2026, which traders should monitor for official temperature and precipitation forecasts that could shift conditional token valuations.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.