Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 7 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, the official meteorological reference point for the region. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% on Polymarket, reflecting either insufficient liquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine certainty about the outcome. Traders seeking exposure to this contract would need to provide initial liquidity in USDC on Polygon, creating conditional tokens that represent discrete temperature bands.

Historical June temperatures in Seoul cluster around 23–28°C for daily highs, though the city regularly experiences readings above 30°C during early summer heat waves. The 2018 and 2019 June periods saw several days exceeding 32°C, whilst cooler years have produced highs near 20°C. The current 0% pricing suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient trader interest to establish a meaningful probability distribution across the available ranges, making historical volatility a useful reference point for calibrating expectations.

South Korea's meteorological agency (KMA) publishes seasonal forecasts quarterly, with the most recent spring outlook typically available by late April. La Niña or El Niño conditions influence Pacific weather patterns that affect Korean peninsula temperatures, though June forecasts remain inherently uncertain given the distance from the settlement date. Traders should monitor KMA updates in spring 2026 and track broader East Asian weather systems as June approaches, as the arrival of the monsoon season can suppress temperatures or conversely intensify heat depending on atmospheric circulation patterns.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.