Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 24 June 2026 at the Incheon International Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket today, this contract trades with a crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not exceed the specific threshold required for resolution. This pricing reflects a market consensus that the day’s heat will remain within a lower band, despite Seoul’s reputation for humid summer conditions.

Historically, June highs in Seoul typically range from 77°F to 81°F (25°C to 27°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C) [1]. However, South Korea recently recorded an all-time peak of 41.0°C (105.8°F) in Hongcheon, and Seoul itself experienced 39 consecutive tropical nights this summer, shattering prior records [2][6]. Just days ago, on 19 June 2026, the highest temperature in the region reached 91°F (32.8°C), indicating that extreme heat is already a live factor in the current season [3]. These comparable cases suggest that while 0% probability is the current market stance, the historical volatility and recent anomalies warrant caution in reading the odds as definitive.

Traders should monitor the North Pacific high-pressure system, which drives hot, humid weather and can push temperatures toward 35°C (95°F) or higher on occasion [4]. Key catalysts include official weather announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration and real-time data updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source. Recent reporting from The Straits Times highlights South Korea’s record-breaking average summer temperatures, underscoring the potential for sudden spikes [6]. On-chain mechanics remain straightforward: positions are settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, with the settlement window closing at 12:00:00 UTC on 24 June 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.