Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing the highest recorded temperature at Incheon International Airport Station on 22 June as a near-certain **low-end outcome**, with **0% YES** implied for the market as currently framed and the order book elsewhere pointing to a **26°C** daytime high being the favoured bucket on the Seoul contract page.[1] For a trader, that means the contract is being treated more like a weather-range exercise than a binary bet on a single sharp spike: the settlement will come from the day’s maximum at the listed Wunderground station, paid out through Polymarket’s usual **USDC**-settled, **Polygon**-based conditional token structure once the resolution source is published.[1]

The historical context supports that cautious pricing. June in Seoul typically sees highs rising through the month, with average daily highs around the high-20s Celsius and rare extremes above the high-20s Fahrenheit-equivalent range noted in climatology summaries.[2] That makes a bucket centred around the mid-20s to upper-20s Celsius a sensible anchor, while a materially hotter print needs an unusually warm synoptic set-up rather than just seasonal drift. Korea’s broader summer climate can produce severe heat, with recent reporting on record-breaking conditions in South Korea underscoring that spikes are possible, but those episodes are not the baseline.[3][4]

The main catalysts are ordinary weather drivers: cloud cover, humidity, monsoon timing, and any late-breaking shift in the synoptic pattern over the Korean peninsula. Because the market resolves off the Incheon Airport station history page, traders should watch short-range forecasts and whether the airport sits under marine influence or a hotter inland airflow, as that can materially change the highest observed reading even when central Seoul feels different. The practical deadline is the Wunderground history update for the settlement day, not a public announcement or policy calendar, so positioning is mainly about the forecast path into the afternoon rather than exogenous events.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.