Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

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Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 1 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground's historical data. The 0% crowd probability on Polymarket reflects conditional token pricing in USDC on Polygon, where traders are currently pricing this outcome as effectively impossible—though the market's structure allows for resolution across multiple temperature bands rather than a binary yes/no outcome.

Early June in Seoul typically sits within a narrow seasonal window. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that 1 June temperatures at Incheon average around 20–22°C as a daily high, with extremes rarely exceeding 28°C. The record high for early June across the broader Seoul metropolitan area hovers near 30°C, set during anomalous heat events in 2011 and 2018. Current pricing suggests traders view the probability of unusually high temperatures on this specific date as negligible, anchored to typical late-spring conditions rather than early summer heat waves.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system's positioning in late May, which determines whether warm air masses reach the Korean peninsula by early June. The Korea Meteorological Administration issues extended forecasts in mid-May that would clarify whether any unusual warming pattern is developing. Additionally, any El Niño or La Niña conditions persisting into early 2026 could shift baseline expectations, though such signals would be visible months in advance through oceanic indices and seasonal outlooks from international meteorological bodies.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.