Highest temperature in Seoul on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 9 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of the “YES” outcome, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specified range. On Polymarket, this contract trades on the Polygon network using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the on-chain probability of the temperature landing in the defined Celsius bracket. The zero probability suggests traders believe the day will be either unusually cool or the range is set too high for typical early-July conditions in the Seoul region.

Historically, early July in South Korea is hot and humid, with average highs often reaching 30°C and “feels like” temperatures exceeding 34°C due to humidity above 80%[1][3]. However, 2025 saw South Korea record its second-hottest July since 1973, with Seoul hitting 37.7°C—the highest early-July temperature in 117 years[6][7]. This extreme heatwave, which peaked on 8 July with 37.8°C, indicates that while 30°C is typical, record-breaking spikes are possible, making the 0% probability a bold stance unless the range is set well above 38°C[8].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for rain and temperature anomalies, as July is the rainiest month with intense, short bursts of precipitation that can temporarily lower temperatures[1][5]. The Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July may increase local humidity but is unlikely to affect Incheon’s readings directly[1]. Watch for official heatwave advisances and Wunderground’s hourly updates for Incheon, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or monsoon activity could alter the day’s peak temperature significantly[3][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.