Highest temperature in Seoul on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 8 July 2026 at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Polymarket prices the YES contract for this event at 0% today, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not fall within the specified range, despite Seoul’s historical tendency for extreme early-July heat.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: on 8 July 2024, Seoul reached 37.8°C, the highest early-July temperature ever recorded in 117 years of records, while 8 July 2025 saw 35.8°C in Seoul[1][9]. Average July highs in South Korea hover near 30°C, but humidity can push “feels like” temperatures over 34°C, and the monsoon season (Jangma) often brings intense, short rain bursts that temporarily cool the air[2][4]. These precedents suggest the 0% price may be overly cautious if the range includes temperatures above 35°C.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for rain probability and temperature anomalies, as a 60% chance of rain with a feel of 29°C was issued for the region just hours ago[7]. Any sudden shift toward clear skies and high-pressure systems could trigger rapid heat spikes, while persistent monsoon activity may suppress peak temperatures. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 8 July 2026, so real-time Wunderground updates will be critical for on-chain conditional token resolution using USDC on Polygon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.