Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved via historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% YES on Polygon, meaning traders are collectively assigning negligible probability to whichever temperature bracket this contract represents. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 25 July 2026, using the single highest reading recorded across all hours of that calendar day in Celsius.

July in Seoul typically sees peak temperatures between 28–32°C, with occasional heat waves pushing readings above 33°C. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur roughly once per decade during summer months in the Seoul metropolitan area. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the actual high to fall outside a specific upper range, likely reflecting confidence in seasonal norms or recent cooling trends. Comparable July days at Incheon Airport have produced highs ranging from 26°C during cooler years to 36°C during exceptional heat events.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korean Meteorological Administration's medium-range forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide reliable guidance for peak summer temperatures five to ten days ahead. Pacific typhoon activity and Tibetan high-pressure systems drive Seoul's July weather patterns; any tropical cyclone approaching the Korean peninsula would substantially alter temperature trajectories. Real-time updates from Wunderground's historical data feed will be critical for settlement verification, as the platform records sub-daily readings that determine the final highest temperature figure.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.