Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026, measured at Incheon International Airport and resolved via Wunderground, is the real-world event driving this Polymarket contract. Today, the market prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specified range, though the exact range is not stated in the query.

Historically, July in South Korea is the peak of the monsoon season, with daily average highs approaching 30°C and humidity often exceeding 80%, making midday temperatures feel like over 34°C [2]. Comparable Polymarket contracts for early July 2026, such as those for 4 and 6 July, resolved with 100% probability assigned to specific ranges like 28°C, reflecting the consistency of summer heat in Seoul despite rainfall [1][3]. This pattern suggests the current 0% probability may be mispriced if the specified range excludes typical July highs.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for Incheon Airport as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, since only temperatures recorded before that time count [3]. No official weather announcements are scheduled, but the resolution depends entirely on the automated UMA Optimistic Oracle pulling historical data from Wunderground, with USDC payouts settling instantly on Polygon without KYC [3]. Any deviation from the 30°C average could shift probabilities, especially if monsoon intensity fluctuates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.