Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s peak heat on 15 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that day’s highest temperature. The contract currently trades at 0% probability for any YES outcome, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined ranges or that the market structure itself is misaligned with historical norms.

Historically, mid-July in Seoul sees average highs near 28–30°C, with extreme days occasionally reaching 35°C or more. In 2023, Seoul recorded a high of 36.4°C on 19 July, while 2022 saw 37.1°C on 24 July, both at Incheon. These comparable cases suggest that a 0% YES probability is unusually low unless the market’s temperature brackets are set far above typical extremes, a detail traders must verify against the actual resolution ranges before assessing the odds.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time station updates for Incheon, as these will confirm whether extreme heat is developing ahead of settlement. The Korea Meteorological Administration issued a heat advisory for western regions on 10 July 2026, citing rising humidity and sustained high temperatures [1]. On-chain mechanics remain straightforward: positions settle in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with final resolution locked at 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z based solely on Wunderground’s recorded daily maximum.

[1] Korea Meteorological Administration, “Heat Advisory Issued for Western Regions,” 10 July 2026.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.