Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is expected to face peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station likely recording a high between 31°C and 34°C. The Polymarket contract for this event currently prices the “YES” outcome at 0%, reflecting a crowd consensus that the specific binary condition tied to the market is improbable, while the underlying temperature distribution favours 32°C at 42% and 33°C at 28% [1]. This divergence suggests traders are betting on the temperature range rather than the binary resolution, with the market heavily skewed toward the 32–33°C band.

Historical data frames this probability: Seoul reached 37.7°C in early July 2025, the hottest early July in 117 years, and July 2025 saw 22 consecutive “tropical nights” above 25°C [2][3]. Average July highs in Seoul range from 81°F to 85°F (27–29°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (33°C) [5]. The 0% YES price implies the market expects the temperature to fall outside the binary threshold, likely due to the range-based resolution favouring the 32–33°C outcomes over the binary condition.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the Incheon station, as these are the official resolution sources [1]. Any sudden shifts in monsoon activity or heatwave announcements from Seoul’s weather bureau could alter the temperature distribution, though no major catalysts are scheduled beyond routine daily forecasts. The contract settles on Polygon using USDC, with conditional tokens determining the final payout based on the recorded temperature at the specified station.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.