Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded in Seoul on 10 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the resolution based on data from the Incheon International Airport Station. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not fall into the specific range being traded, despite Seoul’s reputation for extreme early-July heat.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: on 8 July 2026, Seoul reached 37.8°C, the highest temperature ever recorded in the city during the 1–10 July period since records began[1]. Long-term averages for July show daily highs typically around 30°C, but with monsoon humidity pushing the felt temperature over 34°C[4]. The 0% price suggests traders expect the day’s peak to stay below the threshold, possibly due to anticipated rainfall, as July is Korea’s wettest month with frequent afternoon showers[4].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for precipitation probability and temperature anomalies, as sudden rain can suppress peak temperatures[9]. Recent climate reports indicate South Korea’s spring was the second-hottest in a decade, with elevated sea surface temperatures that may intensify summer heatwaves[8]. Watch for official weather bulletins released daily before 12:00 UTC on 10 July, as these will clarify whether the monsoon will deliver cooling rain or if heat will persist. The market settles on-chain via USDC on Polygon, using conditional tokens that resolve automatically once Wunderground publishes the day’s highest temperature[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.