Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 1 July 2026 at the Incheon International Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. Current Polymarket pricing shows a 58% probability assigned to the 30°C outcome, with 29°C as the next closest contender at 32%, while the market currently assigns 0% to the YES side of the binary contract. This pricing reflects on-chain conditional tokens settled in USDC on the Polygon network, where liquidity flows directly into the temperature range pools rather than abstract weather speculation.

Historical July data for Seoul frames this probability, with average daily highs ranging from 81°F to 85°F (27°C to 29°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (33°C) [9]. Recent monsoon season patterns show sticky air and daytime highs hitting 30°C (86°F), while heatwaves in early July 2026 pushed temperatures in the Greater Seoul region to 36°C on 8 and 9 July [4][5]. The 0% current crowd-implied probability for the binary YES outcome appears inconsistent with these comparable cases, as 30°C aligns with the historical average and recent heatwave precedents.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for cloud cover and precipitation probability, which currently sit at 30% with light easterly winds [3]. The primary catalyst is the official Wunderground release at 12:00 UTC on 1 July, which will confirm the daily high for the Incheon station [1]. Recent reports indicate Korea is already experiencing July-like heat in June, with temperatures hitting 32°C, suggesting the thermal baseline may be higher than seasonal norms [7]. Watch for any sudden announcements regarding monsoon intensity, as heavy rainfall could suppress the peak temperature below the 30°C threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.