Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively assigning no weight to a temperature outcome that lands in the contract’s YES range on the Incheon Intl Airport Station reading. The event itself is straightforward: the highest temperature recorded at the airport station on 2 August will decide settlement, with the final result pulled from Wunderground and paid out through the usual Polygon-based conditional token structure, funded in USDC.

The setup for early August is still hot, but the comparable guidance leans more towards a high-30s afternoon peak being plausible in South Korea than anything extreme at Incheon. Korean press forecasts on 2 August pointed to nationwide highs of 31-37°C, with Incheon specifically around 32-33°C and Seoul around 35°C, while later coverage from Yonhap described a broader heat wave with highs of 33-39°C across the country and humidity making it feel worse in the capital region.[1][5][11] That matters for market reading because the contract settles on the *single highest* recorded temperature at the station, not the citywide or “feels like” figure, so short-lived mid-afternoon spikes are what would move the outcome, rather than the day’s average.

For traders, the key catalysts are the morning and afternoon forecast updates, any shift in shower timing, and whether cloud cover or rain reaches western Gyeonggi and the Incheon area during peak heating hours.[1][5][15] The recent reports also mention scattered showers elsewhere in the afternoon, which can cap highs if they drift westwards, but the latest commentary still leaves the broader heat pattern intact.[2][13] In practice, Polymarket users watching this market should track how close the station forecast gets to the threshold, because a small revision of just 1-2°C can be enough to change whether the conditional token pays out or expires worthless.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.