Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's Incheon International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature on 14 August 2026, measured at the official meteorological station and reported via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme uncertainty about which range will resolve or a technical pricing anomaly. On Polygon, USDC holders can purchase conditional tokens representing specific temperature brackets, with settlement determined by the precise reading logged in Wunderground's primary data source rather than summary figures.

August temperatures at Incheon typically peak between 28–32°C, with historical records showing occasional excursions above 33°C during heat waves. The 14th falls mid-summer when the Korean peninsula experiences the East Asian summer monsoon; 2023 saw Seoul reach 33.1°C on 8 August, whilst 2022 recorded 32.4°C on the 14th itself. These precedents suggest the market's zero probability across all bands may reflect incomplete trader participation rather than genuine forecasting consensus, given that some temperature outcome is certain to occur.

Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts for heat waves or tropical systems affecting the peninsula. The monsoon's intensity and timing—influenced by Pacific typhoon activity and Tibetan high-pressure systems—will determine whether conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures. Weather Underground's data feed dependency means resolution hinges on Incheon station's operational status; any sensor malfunction or data gaps could trigger resolution delays, a consideration affecting contract liquidity on Polygon.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.