Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The current Polymarket pricing reflects zero demand for any temperature bracket, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity in the conditional token pairs trading on Polygon. This absence of price discovery is notable given that Seoul's August climate is highly predictable within broad bands.

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with historical daily maxima typically between 28°C and 33°C during this period. The Korea Meteorological Administration's records from the past decade show that temperatures exceeding 34°C on any given August day occur in roughly 15–20% of years, whilst readings below 26°C are exceptionally rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests either that the market's range brackets are positioned unfavourably, or that traders have not yet engaged with this contract. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket for East Asian cities have shown that once trading initiates, probabilities often distribute across three to five adjacent temperature bands rather than concentrating entirely on a single outcome.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecast releases, typically issued five to ten days before the settlement date. Tropical weather systems or high-pressure systems moving across the Korean peninsula in early August could materially shift expectations. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Incheon Airport Station data—rather than Seoul city centre readings—is material, as airport stations often record marginally different temperatures due to surface characteristics and wind exposure.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.